Monday, November 10, 2008

Election 2008: How Close Was It!

The election was a closer run thing than people think. I got onto the electorate calculator and did some sums.

The current arrangement on the basis of election night is as follows:

The right included National 59; Act 5; United Future 1. All up, 65.
The left included Labour 43; Green 8; Maori 5; Anderton 1. All up, 57.

Now that looks nice and clearcut.

But think about this. If NZ First party had got 5% of the vote, which is only .79% more than they polled, and National had goe 44.66 instead of the 45.45 they did get, it would look like this (using the Election calculator (http://www.elections.org.nz/calculator/):

The right including National 55; Acts 5; United Future 1. All up, 61.
The left including Labour 41; Green 8; NZ First 6; Anderton 1; Maori 5. All up 62!

According to this analysis, this would have given Labour the chance of leading the nation with the other 4 leftist parties.

Alternatively Maori would have supported the right which would have given the right 66 and the left 57. Indeed, the Maori party would have dictated the government, and it would have taken hui up and down the country to sort it.

Interestingly, the government would be a '4-headed monster' if the right governed or a '5-headed monster' if the left governed.

It also shows that it can be argued that the vote for or against NZ First was the most important factor in the election as it turned out. For those who adhere to an anti-Peters conspiracy, it worked! If there was a plot among some on the right to destroy his chances in the election, it stopped him being king-maker; or as he had promised, queen-maker.

So, heck, it was far closer than people think!

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